Moscow Exchange to resume dollar, euro trading if U.S. eases sanctions - Renaissance
Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital expects the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), Russia’s main trading floor for securities and currencies, to resume trading in U.S. dollars and euros that halted in June 2024 if Washington mitigates or lifts its anti-Russian sanctions as part of its current warming towards Moscow.
Foreign exchange made up a quarter of MOEX’s total trading volume before dollar and euro trade was suspended in response to new U.S. sanctions and moved to the over-the-counter (OTC) market, Renaissance economist Andrei Melaschenko said in a commentary.
The proportion plunged to about 10 per cent by the fourth quarter of 2024, he said in citing a Renaissance estimate.
The share of forex in MOEX’s total commission income plummeted to 5 from 14 per cent over the same period, the Moscow-based bank estimates.
Non-resident dollar and euro traders would most likely be allowed back onto MOEX if the sanctions were alleviated or lifted, according to Melaschenko.
Returning to 2023 forex volumes would boost MOEX’s quarterly commissions by between 1bn and 1.5bn roubles (between $11.82m and $17.73m), Melaschenko said.
MOEX would be “the most obvious beneficiary” in Russia’s financial sector if the sanctions were eased or ditched, the economist said. The potential exact impact on the banking sector is difficult to assess, though, he said because, according to him, information disclosed by banks is too scarce to make this possible.
Melaschenko also warned that the United States’ scrapping of sanctions “would not automatically remove European sanctions” or free Russia from all hurdles in cross-border payment infrastructure.